7
K Paz
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 89
Delaware Park · Race 5 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-03 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-04-15 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-04-01 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-03-15 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 13
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength95%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/12/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 28/01/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 56% | +0.03 |
| 01/03/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 57% | -0.06 |
| 15/03/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 57% | -0.01 |
| 01/04/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 15/04/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 56% | -0.26 |
| 03/05/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 83% | +0.36 |
| 20/06/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 11/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 80% | +0.09 |