5
Kitten's Ploy
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 74
Delaware Park · Race 5 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m 110y
#10
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength22%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Delaware Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Delaware Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-09-04 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2025-07-12 | Delaware Park | ? | 7th | 9th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 13
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength71%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/05/2025 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 07/06/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 63% | +0.26 |
| 28/06/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 14% | -0.02 |
| 12/07/2025 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 14% | -0.23 |
| 04/09/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 70% | +0.23 |
| 04/06/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 20/06/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 01/07/2026 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 29/07/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |