11
Specialagentjonson
5yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 96
Delaware Park · Race 5 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
14%
Place Prob
26%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-20 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-04 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-02-20 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-01-30 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-01-09 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 13
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength60%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08/2025 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 71% | +0.08 |
| 01/10/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 89% | +0.13 |
| 12/12/2025 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 89% | +0.36 |
| 09/01/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 67% | -0.15 |
| 30/01/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 78% | -0.05 |
| 20/02/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 78% | +0.07 |
| 04/04/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 63% | -0.06 |
| 10/06/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |
| 20/06/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 86% | +0.07 |