Ardanwood
8yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 77
Delaware Park · Race 6 - Claiming · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 4.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-19 | Keeneland | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-09-25 | Delaware Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-08-23 | Delaware Park | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2025-07-30 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2025-05-31 | Delaware Park | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2025-03-23 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08/2024 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 25/08/2024 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 60% | -0.29 |
| 06/10/2024 | 7th | 11/4 | 86% | 25% | -0.61 |
| 23/03/2025 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 31/05/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 30/07/2025 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 23/08/2025 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 17% | -0.46 |
| 25/09/2025 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 19/10/2025 | 9th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |