Ascendance
5yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 90
Delaware Park · Race 6 - Claiming · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
90%
Place Prob
61%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 3.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Delaware Park | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-05-23 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-05-09 | Charles Town | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-04-19 | Charles Town | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/01/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 43% | +0.06 |
| 08/03/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 88% | +0.61 |
| 29/03/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 86% | +0.15 |
| 19/04/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 57% | -0.01 |
| 09/05/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 44% | -0.24 |
| 23/05/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 83% | +0.36 |
| 10/06/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 29% | -0.29 |
| 10/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 86% | +0.33 |
| 22/07/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |