2

Have You Heard

5yo Horse · 8-9 · OR 90

Delaware Park · Race 6 - Claiming · 1m

#3

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

8%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move
Strength42%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 4.1)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC9 @ Aqueduct 26/04/2024 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 84 · 1m Fas 118 · beat its mark26/04/2024 · OR 84 par26/04C9OR 84C5 @ Belmont At The Big A 18/05/2024 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 86 · 1m Fm 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark18/05/2024 · OR 86 parC6 @ Colonial Downs 13/07/2024 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 86 · 1m110y Gd 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/07/2024 · OR 86 par13/07C6OR 86C7 @ Saratoga 27/07/2024 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 94 · 1m1f Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark27/07/2024 · OR 94 parC7 @ Saratoga 17/08/2024 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 92 · 1m Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark17/08/2024 · OR 92 par17/08C7OR 92C7 @ Belmont At The Big A 19/10/2024 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 96 · 1m Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark19/10/2024 · OR 96 parC7 @ Aqueduct 30/11/2024 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 95 · 1m Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark30/11/2024 · OR 95 par30/11C7OR 95C8 @ Aqueduct 16/01/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 90 · 6f110y Fas 123 · below its mark16/01/2025 · OR 90 parC8 @ Belmont At The Big A 08/05/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 87 · 1m Fas 124 · beat its mark08/05/2025 · OR 87 par8/05C8OR 87projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2025-05-08Belmont At The Big A?1st1st0
2025-01-16Aqueduct?4th4th0
2024-11-30Aqueduct?5th4th+1
2024-10-19Belmont At The Big A?6th5th+1
2024-08-17Saratoga?3rd2nd+1
2024-07-27Saratoga?6th5th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/0427/0730/118/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 9
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength59%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/04/20241st9/276%100%+0.24
18/05/202410th20/10%0%0.00
13/07/20241st9/276%100%+0.24
27/07/20246th10/382%29%-0.54
17/08/20243rd15/261%75%+0.14
19/10/20246th7/282%38%-0.44
30/11/20245th4/179%56%-0.23
16/01/20254th11/271%50%-0.21
08/05/20251st4/179%100%+0.21