2
Lil Sebastian
4yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 84
Delaware Park · Race 7 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-07-11 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Delaware Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-21 | Delaware Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-10-09 | Delaware Park | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2025-09-18 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 7
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▲
Strength88%
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07/2025 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 20% | -0.67 |
| 07/08/2025 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 86% | -0.06 |
| 20/08/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 18/09/2025 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 75% | +0.22 |
| 09/10/2025 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 21/05/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 30/05/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |
| 11/07/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |
| 23/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 71% | -0.05 |