7
Mose Smokin
3yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 75
Delaware Park · Race 7 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
13/8
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-13 | Colonial Downs | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-20 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-29 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-05-21 | Delaware Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-12 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-01-16 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 7
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength68%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10/2025 | 8th | 100/1 | 0% | 42% | +0.42 |
| 09/11/2025 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 40% | -0.36 |
| 28/12/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 17% | -0.20 |
| 16/01/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 63% | +0.15 |
| 12/02/2026 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 33% | -0.54 |
| 21/05/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 29/05/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 20/06/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 60% | -0.16 |
| 13/07/2026 | 3rd | 13/8 | 91% | 60% | -0.31 |