4
River Seine
4yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 90
Delaware Park · Race 8 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 5f
#3
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
6%
Place Prob
13%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength66%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C5.2
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Colonial Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-04-12 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-09-03 | Colonial Downs | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-08-08 | Penn National | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2025-05-17 | Pimlico | ? | 10th | 9th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 8
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength62%
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 2nd of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08/2024 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 75% | +0.09 |
| 24/08/2024 | 14th | 16/1 | 16% | 13% | -0.02 |
| 11/10/2024 | 8th | 80/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 17/05/2025 | 10th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 08/08/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 83% | +0.12 |
| 03/09/2025 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 57% | -0.31 |
| 12/04/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 75% | +0.12 |
| 05/06/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 18/07/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 38% | -0.34 |