7
Warda
5yo Mare · 8-9 · OR 92
Delaware Park · Race 8 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 5f
#5
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength8%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-25 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-06-10 | Delaware Park | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-11-21 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2025-10-04 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2025-08-23 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 8
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength42%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/06/2025 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 80% | -0.06 |
| 27/06/2025 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 27/07/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 60% | -0.14 |
| 23/08/2025 | 3rd | 7/4 | 91% | 67% | -0.24 |
| 04/10/2025 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 21/11/2025 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 14% | -0.65 |
| 10/06/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 43% | -0.39 |
| 25/06/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 11/07/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 33% | -0.54 |