8
Lily De L'aunay
5yo Filly · 0-0
Enghien · Prix Place Denfert-rochereau - Attele · 1m 6f 64y
#1
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
22%
Place Prob
30%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength28%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.0
Today: 2
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-27 | Enghien | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-11 | Vincennes | 1 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-03-31 | Lyon-Parilly | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-02-27 | Vincennes | 2 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-02-17 | Vincennes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-05 | Vincennes | 3 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 11
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength91%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/09/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 31/12/2025 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 58% | +0.58 |
| 24/01/2026 | 2nd | 40/1 | 0% | 92% | +0.92 |
| 05/02/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 17/02/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 90% | +0.27 |
| 27/02/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 46% | +0.46 |
| 31/03/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 11/04/2026 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 64% | +0.59 |
| 27/04/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 92% | +0.29 |