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Caumsett

8yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 75

Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f

#4

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

4%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength33%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 4.1)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 17/07/2025 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 90 · 1m110y 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark17/07/2025 · OR 90 par17/07C6OR 90C6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 16/08/2025 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 81 · 5f Slo 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark16/08/2025 · OR 81 parC7 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 16/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 83 · 6f 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark16/10/2025 · OR 83 par16/10C7OR 83C7 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 27/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 75 · 5f110y 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark27/10/2025 · OR 75 parC7 @ Mahoning Valley 09/12/2025 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 72 · 6f Fas 124 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark09/12/2025 · OR 72 par9/12C7OR 72C8 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 14/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 75 · 6f 122 · below its mark14/04/2026 · OR 75 parC8 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 14/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 71 · 5f110y Fas 122 · below its mark14/05/2026 · OR 71 par14/05C8OR 71C7 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 28/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 65 · 1m Fas 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark28/05/2026 · OR 65 parC8 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 04/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 67 · 5f Fm 122 · below its mark04/07/2026 · OR 67 par4/07C8OR 67projClass-projected finish: 9th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-04Horseshoe Indianapolis?8th8th0
2026-05-28Horseshoe Indianapolis?6th5th+1
2026-05-14Horseshoe Indianapolis?5th5th0
2026-04-14Horseshoe Indianapolis?4th4th0
2025-12-09Mahoning Valley?7th6th+1
2025-10-27Horseshoe Indianapolis?6th5th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/0727/1014/054/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 9
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength30%

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 5th of 9.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/07/20257th16/116%0%-0.16
16/08/20256th9/153%0%-0.53
16/10/20257th25/10%0%0.00
27/10/20256th33/10%0%0.00
09/12/20257th16/116%0%-0.16
14/04/20264th16/116%50%+0.34
14/05/20265th20/10%20%+0.20
28/05/20266th6/168%0%-0.68
04/07/20268th12/137%30%-0.07