Creative Quality
5yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 84
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 4.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-22 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2025-11-28 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2025-11-07 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-05-23 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-04-26 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-03-29 | Turfway Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/01/2025 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 45% | +0.19 |
| 14/02/2025 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 43% | -0.26 |
| 07/03/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 80% | -0.04 |
| 29/03/2025 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 70% | +0.02 |
| 26/04/2025 | 3rd | 13/8 | 91% | 71% | -0.20 |
| 23/05/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 40% | -0.34 |
| 07/11/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |
| 28/11/2025 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 14% | -0.46 |
| 22/06/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |