8
First Hill
6yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 77
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
37%
Place Prob
32%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength7%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-12 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-22 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-21 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 9
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength36%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/12/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 26/12/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 86% | +0.12 |
| 08/02/2026 | 12th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 21/02/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 22/03/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 86% | +0.02 |
| 12/04/2026 | 3rd | 11/8 | 93% | 78% | -0.15 |
| 23/05/2026 | 6th | 3/1 | 84% | 17% | -0.68 |
| 11/06/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 50% | -0.13 |
| 04/07/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 70% | -0.09 |