2
Beach First
4yo Gelding · 9-2 · OR 81
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 10 - Air Born Leader Overnight Stakes · 1f 130y
#5
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲3
Strength11%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 6.6 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: -2.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-10-08 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-09-15 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | BHA76 | 5th | 9th | −3 |
| 2025-07-01 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | BHA85 | 3rd | 8th | −4 |
| 2025-05-15 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | BHA86 | 1st | 6th | −4 |
| 2024-10-26 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | BHA81 | 4th | 8th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 7
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength28%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/08/2024 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 26/08/2024 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 12/09/2024 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 88% | +0.24 |
| 26/10/2024 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 67% | +0.04 |
| 15/05/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 01/07/2025 | 3rd | 11/10 | 94% | 71% | -0.23 |
| 15/09/2025 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 43% | -0.43 |
| 08/10/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 89% | +0.52 |
| 04/07/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 25% | -0.12 |