7
Escondido Gold
4yo Gelding · 9-2 · OR 84
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 10 - Air Born Leader Overnight Stakes · 1f 130y
#3
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▲2
Strength4%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 2.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: -2.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-25 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-07-01 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | BHA77 | 1st | 5th | −3 |
| 2025-05-15 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | BHA73 | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2024-10-26 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | BHA68 | 2nd | 5th | −2 |
| 2024-05-23 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 5th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength79%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/05/2024 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 26/10/2024 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 89% | +0.28 |
| 15/05/2025 | 4th | 7/4 | 91% | 63% | -0.28 |
| 01/07/2025 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 25/10/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 57% | +0.41 |
| 04/07/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 88% | +0.61 |