IvyArcIvyArc
6

Hf Firecracker

4yo Filly · 9-2 · OR 60

Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 10 - Air Born Leader Overnight Stakes · 1f 130y

#7

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength23%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.7 /10 (raw 5.3)

Highest class: BHA39
Recent avg: C5.7
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 2

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 21/05/2024 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR - · 1f30y Fas 12421/05C8BHA41 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 15/05/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 41 · 1f130y Slo 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/05/2025 · OR 41 par15/0541OR 41BHA39 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 01/07/2025 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 39 · 1f180y Gd 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark01/07/2025 · OR 39 par1/0739OR 39C8 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 05/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 42 · 1f130y Fas 126 · beat its mark05/09/2025 · OR 42 par5/09C8OR 42C8 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 09/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 51 · 1f180y 126 · beat its mark09/10/2025 · OR 51 par9/10C8OR 51C5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 13/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 60 · 1f110y 128 · beat its mark13/05/2026 · OR 60 par13/05C5OR 60C5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 11/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 61 · 1f130y 128 · beat its mark11/06/2026 · OR 61 par11/06C5OR 61projClass-projected finish: 7th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-11Horseshoe Indianapolis?4th5th−1
2026-05-13Horseshoe Indianapolis?9th10th−1
2025-10-09Horseshoe Indianapolis?1st5th−4
2025-09-05Horseshoe Indianapolis?2nd6th−4
2025-07-01Horseshoe IndianapolisBHA399th8th+1
2025-05-15Horseshoe IndianapolisBHA417th7th+0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/055/0911/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength38%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 7.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/05/20245th15/261%50%-0.11
15/05/20257th20/10%14%+0.14
01/07/20259th25/10%0%0.00
05/09/20252nd20/10%86%+0.86
09/10/20251st11/486%100%+0.14
13/05/20269th5/174%11%-0.63
11/06/20264th14/126%63%+0.36