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4

Rock Hard Love

5yo Gelding · 9-2 · OR 81

Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 10 - Air Born Leader Overnight Stakes · 1f 130y

#6

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength4%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 3.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.9
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 10/09/2024 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 59 · 1f80y Fas 126 · beat its mark10/09/2024 · OR 59 par10/09C8OR 59C8 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 16/10/2024 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 61 · 1f80y Fas 126 · beat its mark16/10/2024 · OR 61 parC5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 24/04/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 73 · 1f80y Fas 128 · beat its mark24/04/2025 · OR 73 par24/04C5OR 73C5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 21/05/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 76 · 1f110y Gd 128 · beat its mark21/05/2025 · OR 76 parC5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 10/07/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 75 · 1f80y Fas 128 · beat its mark10/07/2025 · OR 75 par10/07C5OR 75C5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 07/08/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 76 · 1f130y Fas 128 · below its mark07/08/2025 · OR 76 parC5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 13/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 75 · 1f110y Gd 128 · beat its mark13/11/2025 · OR 75 par13/11C5OR 75C5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 20/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 77 · 1f110y 128 · beat its mark20/05/2026 · OR 77 parC5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 24/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 78 · 1f130y Fas 128 · beat its mark24/06/2026 · OR 78 par24/06C5OR 78projClass-projected finish: 4th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-24Horseshoe Indianapolis?5th6th−1
2026-05-20Horseshoe Indianapolis?2nd3rd−1
2025-11-13Horseshoe Indianapolis?3rd4th−1
2025-08-07Horseshoe Indianapolis?6th6th0
2025-07-10Horseshoe Indianapolis?3rd4th−1
2025-05-21Horseshoe Indianapolis?2nd3rd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today10/0921/0513/1124/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength81%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
10/09/20243rd9/153%78%+0.25
16/10/20241st11/1094%100%+0.06
24/04/20251st13/891%100%+0.09
21/05/20252nd2/189%83%-0.06
10/07/20253rd5/174%78%+0.04
07/08/20256th12/137%29%-0.08
13/11/20253rd20/10%78%+0.78
20/05/20262nd3/184%80%-0.04
24/06/20265th3/184%50%-0.34