5
Tw Trumps Secrets
4yo Gelding · 9-2 · OR 83
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 10 - Air Born Leader Overnight Stakes · 1f 130y
#4
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 2.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: -1.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-07-01 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | BHA86 | 3rd | 8th | −4 |
| 2025-05-14 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2024-10-26 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | BHA76 | 3rd | 7th | −3 |
| 2024-06-27 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | BHA78 | 2nd | 6th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 7
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength55%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/05/2024 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 27/06/2024 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 88% | +0.05 |
| 26/10/2024 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 78% | +0.62 |
| 14/05/2025 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 01/07/2025 | 3rd | 6/4 | 92% | 75% | -0.17 |
| 02/06/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 80% | +0.64 |
| 04/07/2026 | 8th | 11/2 | 71% | 13% | -0.59 |