4
Chabelo
3yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 66
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 2 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 70y
#1
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
26%
Place Prob
24%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength68%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-05-13 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2025-08-16 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength70%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 14% | -0.02 |
| 16/07/2025 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 30/07/2025 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 16/08/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 13/05/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 09/06/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 23/06/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 14/07/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 17% | -0.52 |
| 28/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 83% | +0.20 |