2
Little Rock Jack
3yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 59
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 2 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 70y
#4
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
11%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼2
Strength67%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: +1.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-06-30 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-06-06 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-22 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 8
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength40%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/04/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 22% | +0.06 |
| 13/05/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 40% | -0.07 |
| 06/06/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 29% | -0.19 |
| 30/06/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 27/07/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |