IvyArcIvyArc
10

City Prayers

4yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 86

Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 3 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f

#3

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

11%

Place Prob

17%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength45%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.2
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 25/08/2025 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 76 · 6f 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/08/2025 · OR 76 par25/08C5OR 76C5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 02/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 82 · 5f110y Fas 116 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark02/10/2025 · OR 82 parC6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 28/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 78 · 5f110y 119 · beat its mark28/10/2025 · OR 78 par28/10C6OR 78C6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 13/11/2025 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 80 · 6f 119 · below its mark13/11/2025 · OR 80 parC0 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 07/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR - · 5f110y 1247/04C?C5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 02/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 75 · 6f Fas 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/05/2026 · OR 75 parC5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 28/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 74 · 5f110y 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/05/2026 · OR 74 par28/05C5OR 74C5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 22/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 79 · 6f 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/06/2026 · OR 79 parC6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 10/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 84 · 6f 121 · below its mark10/07/2026 · OR 84 par10/07C6OR 84projClass-projected finish: 1st of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-10Horseshoe Indianapolis?3rd3rd0
2026-06-22Horseshoe Indianapolis?1st0th+1
2026-05-28Horseshoe Indianapolis?1st0th+1
2026-05-02Horseshoe Indianapolis?1st0th+1
2026-04-07Horseshoe Indianapolis?8th8th0
2025-11-13Horseshoe Indianapolis?9th9th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/0813/1128/0510/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 11
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength87%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/08/20254th2/189%40%-0.49
02/10/20256th16/116%0%-0.16
28/10/20251st3/184%100%+0.16
13/11/20259th25/10%0%0.00
07/04/20268th50/10%36%+0.36
02/05/20261st12/137%100%+0.63
28/05/20261st11/271%100%+0.29
22/06/20261st15/890%100%+0.10
10/07/20263rd12/137%60%+0.23