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6

Fat Chance

4yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 88

Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 3 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f

#1

Rank

Odds

10/3

Win Prob

39%

Place Prob

32%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength37%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 22/05/2025 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 84 · 6f Slo 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/05/2025 · OR 84 par22/05C5OR 84C5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 14/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 87 · 5f110y Fas 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark14/06/2025 · OR 87 parC0 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 05/07/2025 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR - · 1m Fm 1225/07C?C5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 16/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 88 · 6f Slo 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/08/2025 · OR 88 parC5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 02/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 91 · 5f110y Fas 116 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/10/2025 · OR 91 par2/10C5OR 91C6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 22/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 87 · 5f110y Fas 119 · beat its mark22/10/2025 · OR 87 parC5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 11/11/2025 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 92 · 6f 119 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark11/11/2025 · OR 92 par11/11C5OR 92C0 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 07/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR - · 5f110y 124C5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 11/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 88 · 6f 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/05/2026 · OR 88 par11/05C5OR 88projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-05-11Horseshoe Indianapolis?1st0th+1
2026-04-07Horseshoe Indianapolis?5th5th0
2025-11-11Horseshoe Indianapolis?5th4th+1
2025-10-22Horseshoe Indianapolis?1st1st0
2025-10-02Horseshoe Indianapolis?2nd1st+1
2025-08-16Horseshoe Indianapolis?2nd1st+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/0516/0811/1111/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 11
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength69%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 11.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/05/20254th7/163%70%+0.07
14/06/20251st9/488%100%+0.12
05/07/202512th9/153%0%-0.53
16/08/20252nd3/184%83%-0.01
02/10/20252nd7/282%80%-0.02
22/10/20251st4/179%100%+0.21
11/11/20255th10/382%20%-0.62
07/04/20265th3/184%64%-0.21
11/05/20261st10/382%100%+0.18