Fugitive Star
4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 96
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 3 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#8
Rank
Odds
13/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 4 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.8 /10 (raw 3.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Turf Paradise | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-04-20 | Turf Paradise | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-03-21 | Turf Paradise | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-02-12 | Turf Paradise | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-01-25 | Santa Anita | ? | 6th | 0th | +5 |
| 2025-12-30 | Turf Paradise | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07/2025 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 86% | -0.05 |
| 20/09/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 25/11/2025 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 20% | -0.38 |
| 30/12/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 25/01/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 12/02/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 86% | +0.17 |
| 21/03/2026 | 6th | 6/4 | 92% | 0% | -0.92 |
| 20/04/2026 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 50% | -0.40 |
| 02/05/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 71% | +0.06 |