3

Tapit Quick

5yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 94

Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 3 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f

#10

Rank

Odds

9/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move
Strength26%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 3.7)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.2
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Churchill Downs 03/05/2025 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 88 · 1m Slo 122 · below its mark03/05/2025 · OR 88 par3/05C6OR 88C6 @ Churchill Downs 15/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 90 · 6f110y Fas 121 · beat its mark15/06/2025 · OR 90 parC5 @ Ellis Park 21/07/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 94 · 6f Slo 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark21/07/2025 · OR 94 par21/07C5OR 94C6 @ Churchill Downs 11/09/2025 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 95 · 6f110y 121 · below its mark11/09/2025 · OR 95 parC6 @ Keeneland 05/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 91 · 7f 121 · below its mark05/10/2025 · OR 91 par5/10C6OR 91C6 @ Churchill Downs 27/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 94 · 6f 120 · below its mark27/11/2025 · OR 94 parC5 @ Oaklawn Park 21/12/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 95 · 5f110y 124 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark21/12/2025 · OR 95 par21/12C5OR 95C5 @ Oaklawn Park 13/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 105 · 6f 115 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark13/02/2026 · OR 105 parC6 @ Churchill Downs 19/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 97 · 6f Fas 121 · below its mark19/06/2026 · OR 97 par19/06C6OR 97projClass-projected finish: 10th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-19Churchill Downs?6th6th0
2026-02-13Oaklawn Park?6th5th+1
2025-12-21Oaklawn Park?3rd2nd+1
2025-11-27Churchill Downs?3rd3rd0
2025-10-05Keeneland?2nd2nd0
2025-09-11Churchill Downs?8th8th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/0511/0921/1219/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 11
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength3%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/05/20253rd10/147%80%+0.33
15/06/20251st5/287%100%+0.13
21/07/20253rd13/266%67%+0.01
11/09/20258th9/153%22%-0.30
05/10/20252nd6/168%86%+0.17
27/11/20253rd16/116%71%+0.56
21/12/20253rd13/266%60%-0.06
13/02/20266th9/276%0%-0.76
19/06/20266th9/153%0%-0.53