4
Viral Plane Lady
4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 79
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 3 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#9
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength14%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.9
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-05-11 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-09 | Keeneland | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-01-02 | Turfway Park | ? | 7th | 9th | −2 |
| 2025-12-18 | Turfway Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 11
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength36%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 83% | +0.12 |
| 02/10/2025 | 4th | 5/4 | 93% | 40% | -0.53 |
| 07/11/2025 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 18/12/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 02/01/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 14% | -0.33 |
| 09/04/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 86% | +0.70 |
| 11/05/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 04/06/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 83% | +0.04 |
| 10/07/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 20% | +0.04 |