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Evening News

5yo Horse · 8-10 · OR 78

Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 4 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m 110y

#10

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Dropping 6 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC7 @ Ellis Park 14/07/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 91 · 1m 123 · below its mark14/07/2025 · OR 91 par14/07C7OR 91C7 @ Ellis Park 17/08/2025 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 93 · 1m 122 · below its mark17/08/2025 · OR 93 parC7 @ Churchill Downs 12/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 94 · 1m Fas 122 · below its mark12/09/2025 · OR 94 par12/09C7OR 94C8 @ Churchill Downs 12/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 94 · 1m110y 121 · below its mark12/11/2025 · OR 94 parC8 @ Turfway Park 27/12/2025 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 93 · 1m Fas 121 · below its mark27/12/2025 · OR 93 par27/12C8OR 93C8 @ Turfway Park 12/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 86 · 1m 125 · beat its mark12/03/2026 · OR 86 parC7 @ Keeneland 16/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 96 · 1m110y Fas 118 · below its mark16/04/2026 · OR 96 par16/04C7OR 96C7 @ Churchill Downs 07/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 97 · 1m Fas 118 · below its mark07/05/2026 · OR 97 parC8 @ Churchill Downs 24/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 95 · 1m Fas 118 · below its mark24/05/2026 · OR 95 par24/05C8OR 95projClass-projected finish: 11th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-05-24Churchill Downs?6th7th−1
2026-05-07Churchill Downs?6th6th0
2026-04-16Keeneland?3rd3rd0
2026-03-12Turfway Park?1st2nd−1
2025-12-27Turfway Park?10th11th−1
2025-11-12Churchill Downs?3rd4th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/0712/1116/0424/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 11
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength59%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/07/20253rd4/179%67%-0.12
17/08/20254th15/890%40%-0.50
12/09/20254th8/158%57%-0.01
12/11/20253rd10/1195%60%-0.35
27/12/202510th7/163%10%-0.53
12/03/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
16/04/20263rd20/10%67%+0.67
07/05/20266th20/10%17%+0.17
24/05/20266th12/137%17%-0.20