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4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 85

Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 4 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m 110y

#11

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength7%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC9 @ Churchill Downs 02/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 80 · 1m Fas 120 · below its mark02/11/2025 · OR 80 par2/11C9OR 80C9 @ Churchill Downs 30/11/2025 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 71 · 7f 122 · below its mark30/11/2025 · OR 71 parC9 @ Turfway Park 18/01/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 68 · 6f110y 122 · below its mark18/01/2026 · OR 68 par18/01C9OR 68C9 @ Turfway Park 20/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 71 · 6f Fas 125 · below its mark20/02/2026 · OR 71 parC9 @ Turfway Park 13/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 71 · 1m Fas 126 · below its mark13/03/2026 · OR 71 par13/03C9OR 71C9 @ Keeneland 10/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 75 · 6f110y 125 · beat its mark10/04/2026 · OR 75 parC7 @ Churchill Downs 29/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 77 · 7f 126 · below its mark29/04/2026 · OR 77 par29/04C7OR 77C7 @ Churchill Downs 28/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 83 · 6f110y Fas 123 · below its mark28/05/2026 · OR 83 parC7 @ Ellis Park 12/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 82 · 6f110y 122 · below its mark12/07/2026 · OR 82 par12/07C7OR 82projClass-projected finish: 9th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-12Ellis Park?4th4th0
2026-05-28Churchill Downs?4th4th0
2026-04-29Churchill Downs?5th5th0
2026-04-10Keeneland?1st3rd−2
2026-03-13Turfway Park?2nd4th−2
2026-02-20Turfway Park?2nd4th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/1120/0229/0412/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 11
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength78%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/11/20254th7/163%57%-0.06
30/11/20257th8/158%40%-0.18
18/01/20266th9/153%55%+0.02
20/02/20262nd15/890%88%-0.03
13/03/20262nd12/137%89%+0.52
10/04/20261st12/137%100%+0.63
29/04/20265th25/10%56%+0.56
28/05/20264th25/10%40%+0.40
12/07/20264th16/116%40%+0.24