6
Patronage
5yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 88
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 4 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-03 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-11 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 11th | 12th | −1 |
| 2026-05-01 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-03-08 | Turfway Park | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-02-14 | Turfway Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-01-22 | Turfway Park | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 11
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength44%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/11/2025 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 20/12/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 01/01/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 86% | +0.49 |
| 22/01/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 43% | -0.05 |
| 14/02/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 89% | +0.26 |
| 08/03/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 01/05/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 11/05/2026 | 11th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 03/06/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 88% | +0.24 |