7
Mikestrumpcard
3yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 50
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 5 - Maiden Special Weight · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
42%
Place Prob
37%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 6.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.4
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-22 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-08 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-05 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 9th | 12th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength30%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/01/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 14/02/2026 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 05/03/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 08/04/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 60% | +0.34 |
| 22/04/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 90% | +0.53 |
| 25/05/2026 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 22% | -0.30 |
| 15/06/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 04/07/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 40% | +0.14 |