2
Big Boy Thunder
3yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 81
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 8 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m
#8
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-13 | Turfway Park | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-02-08 | Turfway Park | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-12-21 | Turfway Park | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2025-11-05 | Churchill Downs | ? | 9th | 12th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 13
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength62%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/11/2025 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 21/12/2025 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |
| 08/02/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 13/03/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 75% | -0.09 |
| 15/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 88% | +0.16 |
| 14/07/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 83% | +0.36 |