4
Blazy
3yo Colt · 8-10 · OR 72
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 8 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m
#13
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength4%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 8.3 /10 (raw 6.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.9
Today:
Class gap: -1.9
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Ellis Park | ? | 7th | 10th | −3 |
| 2026-06-06 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-05-12 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-10 | Keeneland | ? | 7th | 10th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 13
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength21%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 13th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/04/2026 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 12/05/2026 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 06/06/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 63% | +0.47 |
| 04/07/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |