12
Quiet Mischief
3yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 83
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 8 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
10/3
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-07 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-06-04 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-03-12 | Turfway Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-02-22 | Turfway Park | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 13
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/02/2026 | 9th | 9/2 | 76% | 27% | -0.49 |
| 12/03/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 04/06/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 80% | +0.64 |
| 07/07/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 90% | +0.08 |