7
Ap Miss Lunas Tide
5yo Mare · 9-2 · OR 83
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 9 - Horseshoe Indianapolis Classic Stakes · 1f 180y
#8
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength9%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-06 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-10-25 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-10-08 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-09-18 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-08-07 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | BHA78 | 2nd | 6th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 11
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/05/2025 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 03/06/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 44% | +0.08 |
| 04/07/2025 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 17% | -0.44 |
| 07/08/2025 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 89% | +0.73 |
| 18/09/2025 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 08/10/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 25/10/2025 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 06/05/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 04/07/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 88% | +0.40 |