2
Candy Spice
3yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 69
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 9 - Horseshoe Indianapolis Classic Stakes · 1f 180y
#9
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 6.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-09 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2026-06-18 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-05 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2025-10-25 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-07-30 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 11
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength36%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/07/2025 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 25/10/2025 | 10th | 6/4 | 92% | 0% | -0.92 |
| 05/05/2026 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 33% | -0.27 |
| 18/06/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 56% | +0.40 |
| 09/07/2026 | 9th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |