10
Jess A Riot
5yo Mare · 9-2 · OR 87
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 9 - Horseshoe Indianapolis Classic Stakes · 1f 180y
#5
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength5%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-25 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-08 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-08-07 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | BHA80 | 3rd | 7th | −4 |
| 2025-07-16 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2024-11-05 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 11
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength63%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 5th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/2024 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |
| 18/09/2024 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 86% | +0.17 |
| 09/10/2024 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 05/11/2024 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 89% | +0.07 |
| 16/07/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 07/08/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 78% | +0.01 |
| 08/10/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 25/10/2025 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 86% | +0.17 |
| 04/07/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |