5
Hard Promises
3yo Colt · 9-8 · OR 91
Leopardstown · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden · 1m 1f
#1
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
93%
Place Prob
73%
Rank
#1
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | Navan | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-03 | Cork | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 15
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 15. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/05/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 78% | +0.51 |
| 11/07/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 50% | -0.13 |