6

Let's Smash It

3yo Colt · 9-8

Leopardstown · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden · 1m 1f

#3

Rank

Odds

10/3

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Encouraging second in a 1m Dundalk maiden on debut in December. After 7 months off, ran to a similar level when third of 6 at the same course (10.7f) 25 days ago, but he could yet do better as he gains with experience.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 2.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Dundalk 05/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR - · 1m Std 1335/12C8C8 @ Dundalk 12/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR - · 1m2f150y Std 13412/07C8projClass-projected finish: 1st of 5
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-12Dundalk?3rd3rd0
2025-12-05Dundalk?2nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/1212/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 15
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength0%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 15. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/12/20252nd22/10%92%+0.92
12/07/20263rd10/382%60%-0.22