6
Al Haarith
3yo Colt · 9-2 · OR 106
Leopardstown · Bahrain Turf Club Desmond Stakes (Group 3) · 1m
#6
Rank
Odds
1/8
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲6
Strength4%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 11.5 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C6.5
Today: 1
Class gap: -5.9
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | Limerick | ? | 1st | 10th | −7 |
| 2026-06-05 | Fairyhouse | ? | 11th | 20th | −7 |
| 2025-09-27 | Curragh | 1 | 3rd | 3rd | +0 |
| 2025-08-09 | Curragh | ? | 4th | 13th | −7 |
| 2025-06-28 | Curragh | ? | 3rd | 12th | −7 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 9
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength43%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 83% | +0.46 |
| 09/08/2025 | 4th | 13/8 | 91% | 67% | -0.25 |
| 27/09/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 05/06/2026 | 11th | 1/1 | 95% | 23% | -0.72 |
| 11/07/2026 | 1st | 1/8 | 99% | 100% | +0.01 |