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Audience

7yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 106

Leopardstown · Bahrain Turf Club Desmond Stakes (Group 3) · 1m

#3

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

4%

Place Prob

11%

Rank

#3

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Unreliable type who won the Lockinge in his pomp for the Gosden stable. Put together 2 decent efforts for the first time for new connections when placed in Group 3 here and Group 2 at the Curragh (both over 7f) last 2 starts. Could prove difficult to catch around here.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength42%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 8.3 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.5
Today: 1
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack1 @ Doncaster 13/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 113 · 7f6y Sft 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/09/2025 · OR 113 par13/091OR 1131 @ Newmarket 10/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 110 · 7f Goo 131 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark10/10/2025 · OR 110 parC0 @ Meydan 02/01/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 107 · 1m Gd 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/01/2026 · OR 107 par2/01C?OR 107C0 @ Meydan 23/01/2026 · Pos 12th of 15 · OR 107 · 7f Gd 126 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark23/01/2026 · OR 107 parC0 @ Meydan 28/02/2026 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 106 · 1m Fas 126 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark28/02/2026 · OR 106 par28/02C?OR 1061 @ Meydan 06/03/2026 · Pos 13th of 13 · OR 106 · 7f Gd 130 · below its mark06/03/2026 · OR 106 par1 @ Haydock 09/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 104 · 6f212y Gd 136 · below its mark09/05/2026 · OR 104 par9/051OR 1041 @ Leopardstown 11/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 102 · 7f35y Sft 135 · beat its mark11/06/2026 · OR 102 par1 @ Curragh 19/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 106 · 7f GF 136 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/07/2026 · OR 106 par19/071OR 106projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-19Curragh13rd3rd+0
2026-06-11Leopardstown12nd2nd0
2026-05-09Haydock19th9th−0
2026-03-06Meydan113th13th0
2026-02-28Meydan?11th11th+0
2026-01-23Meydan?12th12th+0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/0923/019/0519/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/09/20253rd6/168%80%+0.12
10/10/20255th4/179%0%-0.79
02/01/20263rd11/271%78%+0.07
23/01/202612th8/158%21%-0.36
28/02/202611th20/10%0%0.00
06/03/202613th33/10%0%0.00
09/05/20269th40/10%20%+0.20
11/06/20262nd28/10%83%+0.83
19/07/20263rd7/163%67%+0.04