5
Celtic Motif
4yo Filly · 9-6 · OR 92
Leopardstown · Bahrain Turf Club Desmond Stakes (Group 3) · 1m
#8
Rank
Odds
1/5
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲4
Strength8%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 8.2 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 1
Class gap: -3.9
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 | Killarney | ? | 1st | 10th | −7 |
| 2026-01-10 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 3rd | 10th | −5 |
| 2025-11-02 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 2nd | 9th | −5 |
| 2025-03-08 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-02-09 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 9th | −5 |
| 2024-10-22 | Curragh | 1 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 9
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength69%
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 8th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/08/2024 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 25/08/2024 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 93% | +0.17 |
| 28/09/2024 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 85% | +0.69 |
| 22/10/2024 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 80% | +0.17 |
| 09/02/2025 | 2nd | 10/11 | 95% | 89% | -0.06 |
| 08/03/2025 | 10th | 16/1 | 16% | 10% | -0.06 |
| 02/11/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 89% | +0.01 |
| 10/01/2026 | 3rd | 5/6 | 96% | 80% | -0.16 |
| 14/07/2026 | 1st | 1/5 | 99% | 100% | +0.01 |