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2

Chicago Critic

5yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 104

Leopardstown · Bahrain Turf Club Desmond Stakes (Group 3) · 1m

#2

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

36%

Place Prob

35%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Just touched off in a Meydan Group 2 in February but hasn't matched that form since, his record now 0-14 in pattern company.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength40%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.5
Today: 1
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack1 @ Leopardstown 07/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 110 · 1m Goo 135 · beat its mark07/08/2025 · OR 110 par7/081OR 1101 @ Leopardstown 13/09/2025 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 108 · 1m Goo 136 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark13/09/2025 · OR 108 parC0 @ Meydan 19/12/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 108 · 1m1f Yie 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/12/2025 · OR 108 par19/12C?OR 108C0 @ Meydan 02/01/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 108 · 1m Gd 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/01/2026 · OR 108 parC0 @ Meydan 23/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 15 · OR 108 · 7f Gd 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/01/2026 · OR 108 par23/01C?OR 1081 @ Meydan 06/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR 108 · 7f Gd 130 · beat its mark06/03/2026 · OR 108 par1 @ Curragh 23/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 107 · 6f Gd 131 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark23/05/2026 · OR 107 par23/051OR 1071 @ Epsom Downs 06/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 106 · 7f3y Goo 128 · beat its mark06/06/2026 · OR 106 par1 @ York 27/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 106 · 7f Goo 134 · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 106 par27/061OR 106projClass-projected finish: 4th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-27York14th4th0
2026-06-06Epsom Downs14th4th0
2026-05-23Curragh18th8th+0
2026-03-06Meydan14th4th0
2026-01-23Meydan?2nd2nd+0
2026-01-02Meydan?6th6th+0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today7/082/0123/0527/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength74%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 9.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
07/08/20253rd8/158%60%+0.02
13/09/20257th15/261%25%-0.36
19/12/20254th20/10%50%+0.50
02/01/20266th16/116%44%+0.29
23/01/20262nd14/126%93%+0.67
06/03/20264th5/174%75%+0.01
23/05/20268th14/126%22%-0.04
06/06/20264th25/10%57%+0.57
27/06/20264th10/147%40%-0.07