3
Cowardofthecounty
4yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 100
Leopardstown · Bahrain Turf Club Desmond Stakes (Group 3) · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲5
Strength21%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 10.2 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C5.4
Today: 1
Class gap: -4.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 | Leopardstown | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-28 | Curragh | 1 | 3rd | 3rd | −0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Fairyhouse | BHA99 | 1st | 12th | −9 |
| 2026-04-22 | Gowran Park | BHA99 | 2nd | 13th | −9 |
| 2026-04-15 | Leopardstown | 1 | 8th | 8th | −0 |
| 2025-09-27 | Curragh | BHA102 | 11th | 23th | −10 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength82%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10/2024 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 26/04/2025 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 20% | -0.62 |
| 12/06/2025 | 9th | 9/1 | 53% | 20% | -0.33 |
| 27/09/2025 | 11th | 12/1 | 37% | 9% | -0.28 |
| 15/04/2026 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 22/04/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 75% | +0.17 |
| 12/06/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 28/06/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 60% | +0.07 |
| 16/07/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 80% | +0.54 |