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7

Isaac Newton

3yo Colt · 9-2 · OR 104

Leopardstown · Bahrain Turf Club Desmond Stakes (Group 3) · 1m

#4

Rank

Odds

11/2

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

6%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Made the frame in a Group 1 at Saint-Cloud on final start at 2 yrs. Matched that form only once this season (overcame trouble to win listed race at Navan in June), though wasn't disgraced when third in a Group 3 here (9f) 3 weeks ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength31%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.6
Today: 1
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Curragh 19/07/2025 · Pos 2nd of 15 · OR - · 7f Goo 13119/07C82 @ Goodwood 02/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR - · 7f Goo 128C5 @ ParisLongchamp 04/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 16 · OR - · 7f209y GS 1254/10C5C0 @ Saint-Cloud 26/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 95 · 1m1f207y Ver 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark26/10/2025 · OR 95 par1 @ Newmarket 15/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 106 · 1m1f Gd 128 · beat its mark15/04/2026 · OR 106 par15/041OR 1061 @ Lingfield 09/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 106 · 1m3f133y Goo 128 · below its mark09/05/2026 · OR 106 par1 @ Navan 07/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 103 · 1m1f Goo 124 · beat its mark07/06/2026 · OR 103 par7/061OR 1031 @ Curragh 28/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 105 · 1m2f Gd 123 · below its mark28/06/2026 · OR 105 par1 @ Leopardstown 16/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 105 · 1m1f Goo 126 · beat its mark16/07/2026 · OR 105 par16/071OR 105projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-16Leopardstown13rd3rd0
2026-06-28Curragh16th6th0
2026-06-07Navan11st1st−0
2026-05-09Lingfield15th5th−0
2026-04-15Newmarket14th4th−0
2025-10-26Saint-Cloud?4th4th+0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/0726/107/0616/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 9
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength31%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/07/20252nd11/142%93%+0.51
02/08/20251st8/1397%100%+0.03
04/10/20255th11/1094%73%-0.21
26/10/20254th20/10%67%+0.67
15/04/20264th3/184%50%-0.34
09/05/20265th4/179%20%-0.59
07/06/20261st5/174%100%+0.26
28/06/20266th6/168%17%-0.52
16/07/20263rd11/271%60%-0.11