8
Needle Match
3yo Colt · 9-2 · OR 106
Leopardstown · Bahrain Turf Club Desmond Stakes (Group 3) · 1m
#9
Rank
Odds
18/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength14%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.2 /10 (raw 6.0)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.6
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Newmarket | 1 | 13th | 13th | +0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Newbury | 1 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-10-24 | Newbury | 4 | 1st | 5th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength21%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 18/04/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 02/05/2026 | 13th | 18/1 | 5% | 8% | +0.02 |