9
Sparan Nua
3yo Filly · 9-2 · OR 109
Leopardstown · Bahrain Turf Club Desmond Stakes (Group 3) · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
59%
Place Prob
45%
Rank
#1
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength6%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 1.5)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.9
Today: 1
Class gap: -2.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Curragh | 1 | 3rd | 3rd | +0 |
| 2026-06-14 | Cork | 1 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Gowran Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Naas | ? | 1st | 10th | −7 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength35%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/05/2026 | 1st | 25/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 20/05/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 14/06/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 18/07/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 78% | +0.20 |