1
Ascending
7yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 98
Leopardstown · Ballyroan Stakes (Group 3) · 1m 4f
#4
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲4
Strength21%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 8.9 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 1
Class gap: -3.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-16 | Royal Ascot | 2 | 10th | 12th | −1 |
| 2026-05-01 | Ascot | 1 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-09-28 | Curragh | BHA99 | 6th | 17th | −9 |
| 2025-08-23 | York | 2 | 2nd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-06-17 | Royal Ascot | 2 | 1st | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-05-06 | Cork | BHA93 | 1st | 11th | −9 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength69%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09/2024 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 91% | +0.09 |
| 22/10/2024 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 90% | +0.29 |
| 29/11/2024 | 1st | 2/5 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 06/05/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 17/06/2025 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 23/08/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 95% | +0.58 |
| 28/09/2025 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 83% | +0.25 |
| 01/05/2026 | 7th | 11/1 | 42% | 14% | -0.28 |
| 16/06/2026 | 10th | 6/1 | 68% | 40% | -0.28 |