2
Dallas Star
5yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 100
Leopardstown · Ballyroan Stakes (Group 3) · 1m 4f
#9
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▲3
Strength21%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 8.1 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 1
Class gap: -3.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-20 | Royal Ascot | 2 | 7th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-05-29 | Down Royal | 1 | 4th | 4th | −0 |
| 2026-05-15 | Leopardstown | 1 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Navan | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-04-03 | Curragh | BHA98 | 3rd | 14th | −9 |
| 2026-02-27 | Dundalk | BHA99 | 3rd | 14th | −9 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength9%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08/2025 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 14/09/2025 | 8th | 125/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 16/01/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 80% | -0.08 |
| 27/02/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 67% | -0.21 |
| 03/04/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 67% | -0.16 |
| 25/04/2026 | 2nd | 33/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 15/05/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |
| 29/05/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 25% | -0.49 |
| 20/06/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |