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4

Gaucher

7yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 108

Leopardstown · Ballyroan Stakes (Group 3) · 1m 4f

#5

Rank

Odds

18/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Smart dual-purpose performer who landed a Grade 3 hurdle in October and in good form on all-weather thereafter, successful twice at Dundalk prior to finishing an excellent second in Easter Classic at Newcastle in April. Always behind in Wolferton at Royal Ascot since but he's better than that.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲5
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.

Class-adjusted form 9.2 /10 (raw 3.3)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 1
Class gap: -4.7
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack1 @ Punchestown 29/04/2025 · Pos 4th of 17 · OR 147 · 2m149y Yie 166 · below its mark29/04/2025 · OR 147 par29/041OR 1471 @ Tipperary 03/07/2025 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 150 · 2m Goo 164 · below its mark03/07/2025 · OR 150 par1 @ Galway 31/07/2025 · Pos 5th of 19 · OR 149 · 2m11y Goo 165 · below its mark31/07/2025 · OR 149 par31/071OR 1491 @ Tipperary 05/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 150 · 2m20y Goo 164 · beat its mark05/10/2025 · OR 150 parBHA90 @ Dundalk 28/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR 90 · 2m Std 140 · below its mark28/11/2025 · OR 90 par28/1190OR 90BHA90 @ Dundalk 05/12/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 90 · 1m4f Std 130 · beat its mark05/12/2025 · OR 90 parBHA101 @ Dundalk 27/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 101 · 1m2f150y Std 132 · beat its mark27/02/2026 · OR 101 par27/02101OR 1012 @ Newcastle 03/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 106 · 1m2f42y Std 138 · beat its mark03/04/2026 · OR 106 par1 @ Royal Ascot 16/06/2026 · Pos 13th of 16 · OR 108 · 1m1f212y GF 131 · below its mark16/06/2026 · OR 108 par16/061OR 108projClass-projected finish: 9th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-16Royal Ascot113th13th−0
2026-04-03Newcastle22nd4th−1
2026-02-27DundalkBHA1011st12th−10
2025-12-05DundalkBHA901st11th−8
2025-11-28DundalkBHA904th14th−8
2025-10-05Tipperary11st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/045/1027/0216/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength1%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/04/20254th16/116%81%+0.65
03/07/20254th5/287%73%-0.14
31/07/20255th28/10%78%+0.78
05/10/20251st13/891%100%+0.09
28/11/20254th2/189%75%-0.14
05/12/20251st11/486%100%+0.14
27/02/20261st10/1195%100%+0.05
03/04/20262nd3/184%92%+0.08
16/06/202613th18/15%20%+0.15