6
Layfayette
9yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 106
Leopardstown · Ballyroan Stakes (Group 3) · 1m 4f
#2
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#2
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▲3
Strength21%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.7 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 1
Class gap: -3.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-19 | Limerick | 1 | 1st | 1st | −0 |
| 2026-05-29 | Down Royal | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Navan | 1 | 6th | 6th | −0 |
| 2026-04-03 | Curragh | BHA97 | 1st | 12th | −9 |
| 2025-10-21 | Curragh | BHA100 | 7th | 18th | −9 |
| 2025-08-07 | Leopardstown | 1 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength83%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06/2025 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 67% | -0.04 |
| 28/06/2025 | 2nd | 18/1 | 5% | 80% | +0.75 |
| 01/08/2025 | 13th | 12/1 | 37% | 29% | -0.07 |
| 07/08/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 21/10/2025 | 7th | 7/2 | 82% | 45% | -0.36 |
| 03/04/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 25/04/2026 | 6th | 22/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 29/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 75% | +0.22 |
| 19/06/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |